近期,在中美貿易摩擦的大背景下,美方對中國發展中國家的身份各種無理指責,關於中國是否是發達國家,在海外問答網站Quora上熱議不斷,有網友問道:為什麼中國不是發達國家?一位來自英國的經濟學家認為這是美國為了自身經濟利益精心設計的圈套,專門撰文回答了他的問題。
As we all know, China is the second largest economy in the world, and its total economy is second only to the United States. This is an indisputable fact, but it does not mean that high economic aggregate and developed degree can be equated. China has a population of 1.4 billion, and there is still a big gap between China and the typical developed countries in the world. Therefore, it is an objective fact that we are still a developing country.
眾所周知,中國是世界第二大經濟體,其經濟總量僅次於美國。這是一個不爭的事實,但這並不意味著經濟總量高和發達程度就可以劃等號。中國有14億人口,中國與世界上典型的發達國家還有很大差距,所以中國還是一個發展中國家是個客觀事實。
But the United States does not think so. Americans think your total GDP will catch up with us soon and grow rapidly every year. It's only a matter of time to surpass us. At this time, although it can not stop you, it will also add some obstacles or troubles to you, constantly create Sino US trade frictions and force China to become a "developed country".
但美國並不這麼認為。美國人認為你們的GDP總量很快就會趕上我們,而且每年都會快速增長,超越我們美國只是時間問題。在這個時候,它雖然不能阻止你,但它也會給你增加一些障礙或麻煩,不斷地製造貿易摩擦,逼迫中國成為“發達國家”。
Because China has a large trade surplus with the United States, trump often "calls for injustice" on the Internet. He is particularly dissatisfied with the fact that many countries, including China, have won the status of developing countries. He believes that "the United States suffers losses" and obviously intends to suppress China. "China is very powerful. China is a developed country. If China is called a developing country, we are all developing countries," trump said in an interview with the media.
由於中國對美國有著較大的貿易順差,白宮官員還經常在網際網路上“呼籲不公正”,他特別不滿意包括中國在內的許多國家獲得發展中國家地位,認為“美國吃虧”,意欲壓制中國的圖謀昭然若揭。"中國非常強大,中國是發達國家,如果中國被稱為發展中國家,那麼我們都是發展中國國家。”美國總統接受媒體採訪時如此說道。
The well-known US financial investment website (Investopedia) and the Bank of Montreal (BMO) of Canada recently proposed a set of generally recognized "access indicators" for developed countries.
美國知名金融投資網站(INVESTOPEDIA)和加拿大蒙特利爾銀行(BMO)日前提出一套得到普遍認同的發達國家“准入指標”。
First, the GDP per capita should be at least US $12000 (or US $25000 per capita if it is a small country with a small population). For fairness, it can be calculated according to purchasing power parity (PPP).
首先,人均GDP總值至少達到12000美元(如果是人口小國則應相應提高至人均25000美元,為公平起見可按購買力平價(PPP)計算。
Secondly, the human development index (HDI) is not lower than 0.80. We should know that the HDI index of old developed countries is generally above 0.85 or even 0.90.
其次,人類發展指數(HDI)不低於0.80,要知道老牌發達國家HDI指數普遍在0.85甚至0.90以上。
Third, high industrialization; The average life expectancy above 70 or even 80 years old is far lower than the infant mortality rate of 10 per 1000 live births; Higher female employment and the proportion of women in senior positions; Enjoy energy consumption and energy consumption varieties far higher than the global average; Have a high level of personal debt.
第三,高度工業化;高於70甚至達到80歲的人均壽命,遠低於千分之十的活產嬰兒死亡率;較高的女性就業和女性擔任高階職務比例;享有遠高於全球平均水平的能耗和能源消耗品種;擁有較高的個人負債水平。
The WTO does not have its own quantitative criteria for whether a country is a developing country, but it clearly points out that developed countries should provide preferential transition periods to developing countries. When China joined the WTO in 2001, its per capita GDP was less than US $1000, which undoubtedly belongs to a developing country. However, by 2019, China's per capita GDP will be close to US $10000. Therefore, the United States proposes to cancel China's preferential treatment as a developing country in the WTO.
而世貿組織對於一國是否是發展中國家沒有自己的量化標準,但它明確指出發達國家應向發展中國家提供優惠的過渡期。2001年中國加入世貿組織時,人均國內生產總值不足1000美元,這無疑屬於一個發展中國家。然而,到2019年,中國人均GDP接近1萬美元,綜合國力顯著增長時,美國企圖藉機建議取消中國在世貿組織中享受發展中國家的優惠待遇。
Blue is developed countries and yellow is developing countries
上圖中藍色是發達經濟體,黃色是發展中經濟體。
Of course, the definition criteria of developed and developing countries can be measured by many indicators, such as GDP (gross domestic product), per capita GNI (gross national income), average life expectancy, literacy rate, medical level, etc. But in my opinion, in fact, these data are not the most important, because these standards are the result of political struggle between big countries. Whoever is stronger has the priority to interpret the rules.
當然,發達國家和發展中國家的界定標準可以用許多指標來衡量,如GDP(國內生產總值)、人均GNI(國民總收入)、平均預期壽命、識字率、醫療水平等。但在我看來,事實上,這些資料並不是最重要的,因為這些標準是大國之間政治角力的結果,誰更強大,誰就有規則的優先解釋權。
The fundamental purpose of the United States is to urge new market countries, including China, to be deprived of a series of protection policies given to developing countries by the WTO framework as soon as possible, including the buffer period of market opening, the protection of vulnerable industries, special care for subsidies and tariffs, and even ultimately urge the WTO to fundamentally abandon "developing countries" through various high-pressure means This principle, which in its view is "unfavorable" to the United States.
美國的根本目的是促使包括中國在內的新型市場國家早日被剝奪WTO框架賦予發展中國家的一系列保護政策,包括市場開放緩衝期、對弱勢產業的保護、對補貼和關稅的特殊照顧等,甚至最終透過各種高壓手段,促使WTO從根本上放棄“發展中國家”這一在其看來對美國“不利”的劃定原則。
In other words, the United States must make China a developed country. It will produce a series of indicators to prove that you are a developed country. As for how to calculate these indicators, it has a large number of top economists to calculate and produce data and evidence to make China a developed country.
換句話說,美國必須使中國成為一個發達國家,它將製造一系列指標來證明你是一個發達國家,至於如何計算這些指標,他有大量頂尖經濟學家來計算,製造資料和證據,使中國成為一個發達國家。
Therefore, there are many pseudo developed countries that are "accidentally" classified as developed countries, such as Iceland in Europe, South Korea in Asia, South Africa in Africa, etc. these countries simply do not have the strength of developed countries and need to meet the requirements of developed countries. Responsibility is the result of insufficient political power and the performance of weak countries without real diplomatic power.
因此,有許多被“意外”歸為發達國家的偽發達國家,如歐洲的冰島、亞洲的韓國、非洲的南非等,這些國家根本不具備發達國家的實力,需要滿足發達國家的要求。責任是政治權力不足的結果,也是沒有外交實權的弱國的表現。
Therefore, the problem facing China now is not when to become a developed country, but how to accumulate slowly over a long period of time and finally become a developed country and enjoy the status of a developing country, because at present, this status brings only benefits but no disadvantages to China.
因此,中國現在面臨的問題不是何時成為發達國家,而是如何在較長時間內慢慢積累最終成為發達國家,享有發展中國家的地位,因為目前,這一地位給中國帶來的只有好處,沒有壞處。
Develop a large number of advanced buildings, advanced railways and advanced technologies... These are just tools to achieve goals, not goals worth pursuing, It is not evidence of a country's development.
開發大量先進的建築、先進的鐵路、先進的技術……這些只是實現目標的工具,而不是值得追求的目標,更不是驗證一國是否發達的證據。
The most important thing is to provide security for the weak so that they can have food and clothing. As we all know, it is always the shortest barrel that determines the capacity of a barrel; The standard to measure a country's development level is not the rich clothes and food of the strong, but the status of the weak.
最重要的是為弱者提供保障,讓他們衣食無虞。我們都知道,決定一個桶容量的總是最短的桶;衡量一個國家的發展程度,標準不是強者的錦衣玉食,而是弱者的地位。
According to authoritative data, there are still 600 million low-income people in China, who earn only 1000 yuan a month. Can you imagine? The development of a country depends not only on cities, but also on backward and poor areas. Therefore, the state must vigorously help the poor and benefit the people. China's vigorous implementation of the strategies of "common prosperity" and "Rural Revitalization" has achieved initial results, but it is far from reaching the ultimate goal.
根據權威資料說,中國仍有數億低收入者,這些人每月只掙1000元。你能想象嗎?一個國家的發展不僅要看城市,還要顧及落後的貧困地區。因此,國家必須大力扶貧,造福人民。中國大力實行“共同富裕”和“鄉村振興”戰略初見成效,但遠未達成最終目標。
How is your life? How much money do you have in your pocket? Chinese people are clear about whether they are developed countries and should not be defined by some countries. Whether China is "developing" or "developed", we are all practitioners and witnesses. We are still moving forward. You will wait and see.
生活得如何,兜裡有幾個錢,中國老百姓對自己是否是發達國家清清楚楚,不應該被某些國家定義。無論中國在“發展中”還是已經“發達”,中國人民都是實踐者和見證者,他們仍在前進的路上,你們拭目以待吧。