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編者按：俄羅斯總統普京春節大年初四訪華，為新華社撰文，籤15箇中俄合作大單，發中俄共同宣告，出席冬奧會開幕式。俄羅斯知名期刊《Eurasia EXPERT》2022年2月8日刊發就此對中國人民大學重陽金融研究院執行院長、國務院參事室金融中心研究員王文的專訪。在問答中，透露了諸多重要的細節。現將專訪中、英文內容推薦如下，俄文實錄可點選此檢視。
Eurasia EXPERT：俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京為中國新華社撰寫了一篇文章，他在文章中談到了俄中關係的夥伴關係和未來。《俄羅斯和中國：面向未來的戰略伙伴關係》一文是在俄羅斯領導人訪問北京前夕發表的。你如何評價俄羅斯總統的文章？這篇文章在中國是如何收到的？你能從他的文章中挑出哪些主要論點？
王文：普京總統在新華社撰文，在中國引起了巨大的影響。與此同時，他還接受了央視總檯臺長的書面採訪。新華社是世界第一大新聞通訊社，每天擁有數億的讀者。央視總檯則是全球擁有最多觀眾的電視臺。普京總統選擇新華社刊文與接受央視總檯的專訪，說明其對中國媒體非常瞭解，希望有更多中國人能夠讀到他的所思所想。更重要的是，2月4日，普京總統來華出席冬奧會開幕式，與中華人民共和國主席習近平9年來第38次見面會晤，期間又簽署《中俄關於國際關係進入新時代和全球可持續發展的聯合宣告》，見證15項中俄合作協議。2月4日，是中國春節期間第四天，又是中國農曆立春，又是冬奧開幕，普京總統用撰文、出席、宣告、簽約等多彩方式，在中國掀起了多年未見的“俄羅斯熱”。正如普京總統撰文中提到：“俄中全面戰略協作夥伴關係進入新時代，達到了前所未有的水平，成為高效、負責和麵向未來的典範”，兩個大國能夠如何互信、合作、高效，是兩國人民之幸，也是世界之幸。
Eurasia EXPERT：俄羅斯總統在文章中說，我們兩國正在形成一個互利的能源聯盟。文章說：“除了向中國長期運送俄羅斯碳氫化合物外，我們還計劃實施一些重大的聯合專案。”與俄羅斯在能源領域的合作如何影響並正在影響中國和整個亞洲地區的能源安全？
王文：“互利的能源聯盟”的說法，在中國能源界引起很大的反響。中俄經濟與能源互補性很強，兩國能源的合作是互利共贏的。當前中國是全球石油第一大進口國，俄羅斯對中國的石油出口遞增戰略，是普京總統做出的正確決策。2003年，中國原油進口僅7%左右源於俄羅斯與中亞地區；2019年中國原油進口源於俄羅斯的比例上升至15%。這16年裡，中國原油進口年均增長10%左右，GDP從2003年佔世界約3%左右、居世界第7位上升到2019年佔世界約15%、穩居世界第2位。這說明俄羅斯分享了中國經濟發展的成果，也為中國經濟發展做出重要貢獻。不過，2021年，隨著中國採取低碳發展戰略，中國原油進口量20年來第一次下降，俄羅斯繼續擴大對中國的原油出口，意味著中國將減少其他進口國（如非洲、拉丁美洲一些國家）的比例，從這個角度看，中俄加大合作的速度應該更快一些，對歐亞地區經濟一體化程序的推動還將繼續深化。
Eurasia EXPERT：中俄兩國領導人在北京舉行會談。據指出，去年中俄貿易額超過1400億美元，創歷史新高。與此同時，這些國家打算將其增加到2000-2500億美元。中國方面宣佈，打算將兩國之間的貿易額提高到2500億美元。您認為將兩國貿易額提高到2000-2500億美元的任務有多現實？您認為，雙邊經貿合作如何實現這些指標？
王文：2021年中俄貿易額超過1400億美元，增長26%。兩國領導人確定中俄貿易達到2000-2500億美元的目標，就是在2021年基礎上再增長42%-78%。只要能保持2021年增長態勢，未來3-5年內就能實現這個目標。我認為，隨著新冠疫情的消失以及兩國的努力，這個目標的實現可能還會比我們想象中要更快。以中國另兩個東北亞鄰國為例，2021年，中韓貿易總額超過3000億美元；中日貨物貿易總額達3700億美元，隨著RECP進一步深化，中日、中韓貿易還會繼續增長。中國與俄羅斯在能源、科技、工業產品、農業等方面的經濟互補量與市場潛力遠大於中韓、中日兩國。要挖掘中俄貿易額的潛力，關鍵是要推動中俄貿易投資便利化、自由化。
Eurasia EXPERT：俄羅斯和中國打算在EAEU和“一帶一路”倡議框架內加強合作，深化合作。俄羅斯聯邦和中國關於國際關係進入新時代和全球可持續發展的相應宣告文字在克里姆林宮網站上發表。“各方希望加強歐亞經濟聯盟發展計劃和一帶一路倡議的工作，以加深各領域的EAEU與中國的務實合作，提高亞太和歐亞地區的互聯互通水平。”宣告說，EAEU與“一帶一路”倡議的前景如何？加強EAEU “一帶一路”倡議對接的目的是什麼？
王文：目前，中國已與148個國家、32個國際組織簽署200多份“一帶一路”合作備忘錄。“一帶一路”已成為全球最大的公共產品。EAEU和“一帶一路”加強合作，實現了兩國的雙贏，是“一帶一路”全球合作中區域最大、影響最強的成果。中俄兩國領導人努力讓兩個國家實現友好，永不戰爭與衝突，這將是人類文明與大國博弈歷史的巨大進步。而要實現這個目標，首先要做的是讓兩國基建、貿易、交通、投資、人員、資訊都能夠進一步互聯互通，讓兩個國家像一家人那樣互相幫助、共同進步。這正是EAEU與“一帶一路”合作的重要前景與目的。從這個角度看，EAEU與“一帶一路”的合作還有很長的路要走，但我們有信心。
Eurasia EXPERT：在你看來，俄羅斯和中國恢復友好關係的原因是什麼？
王文：中俄兩國領導人持續不斷努力，是兩國友好關係不斷進步的首要原因。過去9年，中俄兩國領導人每年都有4-5次會晤，是真正的好朋友。中俄兩國在外交政策、全球治理、安全戰略上高度保持一致，是背靠背、肩並肩的戰略合作伙伴。用中國網民的說法是，兩國互信，把沒有防備的身後完全交付給了對方，當自己揮刀對抗外來勢力的時候，不會擔心有敵人從後面襲來。我們希望這種互信的關係，能夠永遠存在下去。
Eurasia EXPERT：中俄兩國領導人簽署了關於國際關係進入新時代和全球可持續發展的聯合宣告。俄羅斯和中國領導人的聯合宣告證明了什麼？
王文：關於新時代和全球可持續發展的聯合宣告，首先說明了中俄兩國在民主、發展、安全與世界秩序、疫情等重大戰略主題上的共同立場。這種共同立場對世界和平、文明進步意義重大，是對過去500年來國強必霸、大國興衰規律的超越。中俄兩國對國際上少數勢力奉行單邊主義、干涉他們內政、損害他國正當權益，製造矛盾分歧與對抗的行為進行強烈的批判。我相信，所有人都知道，兩國批判的是哪個國家。宣告中還有一句話唯一用了“強烈譴責”的句，是點名道姓地對美國、英國、澳大利亞建立的“三邊安全夥伴”，即所謂的“AUKUS”。中國網民戲稱其為“澳哭死”。中國知名媒體人胡錫進的一個比喻很有意思，兩頭獅子的合作比一頭獅子籠絡幾隻狗管用。
以下為英文實錄
Eurasia EXPERT：Russian President Vladimir Putin wrote an article for the Chinese news agency Xinhua, in which he spoke about partnership and the future in relations between Russia and China. The article "Russia and China: a strategic partnership oriented towards the future" was published on the eve of the Russian leader's visit to Beijing. How would you evaluate the article of the President of Russia? How was this article received in China? What main theses could you single out from his article?
WANG Wen: President Putin's article on Xinhua news agency has caused great influence in China. At the same day, he also received a written interview from the head of CCTV. Xinhua news agency is the largest news agency in the world, with hundreds of millions of readers every day. CCTV is the TV station with the largest audience in the world. President Putin's choice of articles published by Xinhua news agency and an exclusive interview with CCTV show that he knows Chinese media very well and hopes that more Chinese people can read what he thinks. On February 4, the fourth day of the Chinese lunar new year, the beginning of the spring of the Chinese lunar calendar and the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics, President Putin set off a "Russian Hot" in China in a variety of ways, such as writing, attending, making statements, signing contracts and so on.As President Putin mentioned in his article, "the Russia China comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination has entered a new era, reached an unprecedented level and become a model of efficiency, responsibility and future orientation". How the two major countries can trust, cooperate and be efficient is the blessing of the two peoples and the world.
Eurasia EXPERT：In his article, the President of Russia said that a mutually beneficial energy alliance is being formed between our countries. "Along with long-term deliveries of Russian hydrocarbons to China, we plan to implement a number of major joint projects," the article says. How has cooperation with Russia in the field of energy influenced and is affecting the energy security of China and the Asian region as a whole?
WANG Wen: The statement of "mutually beneficial energy alliance" has aroused great repercussions in China's energy industry. The economy and energy of China and Russia are highly complementary, and the energy cooperation between the two countries is mutually beneficial and win-win. At present, China is the largest importer of oil in the world. Russia's strategy of increasing oil exports to China is the correct decision made by President Putin. In 2003, only about 7% of China's crude oil imports came from Russia and Central Asia;In 2019, the proportion of China's crude oil imports from Russia rose to 15%. Over the past 16 years, China's crude oil imports have increased by about 10% annually, and its GDP has risen from about 3% in the world in 2003 and ranking the seventh in the world to about 15% in 2019 and ranking the second in the world successfully.This shows that Russia has shared the achievements of China's economic development and also made important contributions to China's economic development.However, in 2021, with China's low-carbon development strategy, China's crude oil imports fell for the first time in 20 years. Russia's continued expansion of crude oil exports to China means that China will reduce the proportion of other importing countries (such as some countries in Africa and Latin America). From this perspective, China and Russia should increase cooperation faster, The promotion of economic integration in the Eurasian region will continue to deepen.
Eurasia EXPERT：Vladimir Putin held talks with President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping in Beijing. It was noted that the trade turnover between China and Russia exceeded $140 billion last year, thus reaching a new historical record. At the same time, the countries intend to increase it to $200-250 billion. The President of China announced his intention to raise the volume of trade between the countries to $250 billion. How realistic do you think is the task of raising trade between our countries to $200-250 billion? How, in your opinion, can such indicators be achieved in bilateral trade and economic cooperation?
WANG Wen:In 2021, the trade volume between China and Russia exceeded 140 billion US dollars, an increase of 26%. The leaders of the two countries set the goal of reaching US $200-250 billion in China Russian trade, which is to increase by 42% - 78% on the basis of 2021. As long as the growth trend in 2021 can be maintained, this goal can be achieved in the next 3-5 years.I believe that with the disappearance of COVID-19 and the efforts of the two countries, this goal will probably be faster than we can imagine. Take China's other two neighbors in Northeast Asia as an example. In 2021, the total trade volume between China and South Korea exceeded US $300 billion; The total trade volume of goods between China and Japan has reached 370 billion US dollars. With the further deepening of RECP, the trade between China, Japan and South Korea will continue to grow. The economic complementarity and market potential of China and Russia in energy, science and technology, industrial products and agriculture are much greater than those of China, South Korea and China and Japan. To tap the potential of Sino Russian trade volume, the key is to promote the facilitation and liberalization of China-Russian trade and investment.
Eurasia EXPERT：Russia and China intend to step up work within the framework of the EAEU and the One Belt, One Road initiative to deepen cooperation. The text of the corresponding statement by the Russian Federation and China on international relations entering a new era and global sustainable development is published on the Kremlin website.
"The parties intend to intensify work on linking the development plans of the Eurasian Economic Union and the One Belt, One Road initiative in order to deepen practical cooperation between the EAEU and China in various fields, increase the level of interconnectedness between the Asia-Pacific and Eurasian regions," the statement said. .What are the prospects for linking the EAEU and the One Belt, One Road initiative? What is the purpose of intensifying work on linking the EAEU with the Chinese initiative "One Belt, One Road"?
WANG Wen：China has signed One Belt, One Road initiative(BRI) cooperation MOU with 148 countries and 32 international organizations. BRI has become the largest public product in the world. EAEU and BRI has achieved win-win results. It is the largest and most influential region in the BRI global cooperation maproad. The leaders of China and Russia strive to make the two countries realize friendship and never war and conflict, which will be a great progress in the history of human civilization and the game between great powers. To achieve this goal, we must first make the infrastructure, trade, transportation, investment, personnel and information of the two countries more interconnected, so that the two countries can help each other and make common progress like a family. This is BRI and EAEU cooperation important prospect and purpose. From this perspective, BRI and EAEU cooperation is still a long way to go, but we are confident.
Eurasia EXPERT：In your opinion, what are the reasons for the rapprochement between Russia and China?
WANG Wen:The continuous efforts of the leaders of China and Russia are the primary reason for the continuous progress of friendly relations between the two countries. In the past nine years, the leaders of China and Russia have met 4-5 times a year and are really good friends.China and Russia are highly consistent in foreign policy, global governance and security strategy. They are back-to-back and shoulder-to-shoulder strategic partners. According to Chinese netizens, the two countries trust each other and completely hand over the unprotected behind to each other. When they wield a gun against foreign enemies, they won't worry about the enemies attacking from behind. We hope that this relationship of mutual trust will last forever.
Eurasia EXPERT：Russian and Chinese Presidents signed a joint statement on international relations entering a new era and global sustainable development. What does the joint statement of the leaders of Russia and China testify to?
WANG Wen: The joint statement on the new era and global sustainable development first explained the common values of China and Russia on major strategic themes such as democracy, development, security, world order and epidemic. This common values is of great significance to world peace, civilization and progress.It is a transcendence of the law of the rise and fall of a great power over the past 500 years.China and Russia have strongly criticized the actions of a small number of international forces that pursue unilateralism, interfere in their internal affairs, damage the legitimate rights and interests of other countries, and create contradictions, differences and confrontation. I believe everyone knows which country the two countries criticize. The only sentence in the statement that used "strong condemnation" was the "trilateral security partner" established by name and surname against the United States, Britain and Australia, the so-called "aukus". Chinese netizens jokingly called it "Australia cries to death". As Hu Xijin, a well-known Chinese media person, has a very interesting metaphor. The cooperation between two lions is more effective than one lion attracting several dogs.
// 人大重陽
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RDCY
中國人民大學重陽金融研究院（人大重陽）成立於2013年1月19日，是重陽投資向中國人民大學捐贈並設立教育基金運營的主要資助專案。
作為中國特色新型智庫，人大重陽聘請了全球數十位前政要、銀行家、知名學者為高階研究員，旨在關注現實、建言國家、服務人民。目前，人大重陽下設7個部門、運營管理4箇中心(生態金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年來，人大重陽在金融發展、全球治理、大國關係、宏觀政策等研究領域在國內外均具有較高認可度。
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